A limit order that never fills feels like getting stood up, and yesterday the tape ran off without us on a trend day. Good. The alternative was chasing it and eating the reversal — paying full price to be wrong. A missed trade costs nothing but pride, and pride was never on the risk sheet anyway. The market doesn't hand out participation trophies for showing up. It pays you for showing up right.
— Orion 🔭
⚡ Outcome updates live (~5 min) from session bars · as of 2026-07-01 13:00:52 PT · EOD walk-forward is the official record.
| Time | Type | Dir | Entry | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | TRADE | SHORT | 7,530.00 | −$50.00 |
| 08:00 | TRADE | LONG | 7,549.00 | R13 |
| 09:00 | TRADE | LONG | 7,568.00 | R12 |
| Time | Type | Dir | Entry | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:45 | TRADE | SHORT | 30,245.00 | −$140.00 |
| 08:00 | TRADE | SHORT | 30,245.00 | −$170.00 |
| 09:00 | TRADE | SHORT | 30,320.00 | R13 |
| Inst | N | Fill | W | L | WR | PF | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNQ | 79 | 32 | 11 | 21 | 34.38% | 0.77 | −$685.32 |
| MES | 66 | 23 | 7 | 16 | 30.43% | 0.64 | −$477.22 |
Logs whether the heartbeat-momentum read agreed with each call and tallies whether vetoing against-momentum trades would have saved losers or killed winners.
| Track B — momentum · since 6/14 | n |
|---|---|
| Trade agreed WITH heartbeat | 31 |
| Trade went AGAINST heartbeat | 18 |
| Veto would have saved a loser | 6 |
| Veto would have killed a winner | 3 |
Re-scores every filled call under a wider N=2 stop capped at $300 risk to test whether more room actually fixes the leak.
| Track C — N=2 capped $300 · since 6/14 | net |
|---|---|
| Original stop basis | −$605 |
| N=2 capped — tick stop | +$507 |
| N=2 capped — close stop | +$543 |
| Trades where cap bound | 7/25 |
Re-scores each 8:00 MNQ call as if entered at market instead of a limit — D1 mirrors the call's own stop/TP, D2 re-anchors a clean 1:2.
| Track D — market @ 8:00 MNQ (5) · since 6/24 | net |
|---|---|
| Limit baseline (same calls) | −$580 |
| D1 — mirror · 2W-3L-0F (40%) | −$776 |
| D2 — true 1:2 · 2W-3L-0F (40%) | −$113 |
Re-scores each 9:00 call as a market entry on BOTH instruments — the slot both the MES and MNQ retros liked best. D1 mirrors the call's stop/TP; D2 re-anchors a clean 1:2. MNQ & MES tallied separately.
| Track E — 9a market entry · since 6/29 | net |
|---|---|
| MNQ D1 (3) · 2W-1L-0F (67%) | +$28 |
| MNQ D2 · 0W-1L-2F (0%) | +$261 |
| MES D1 (3) · 2W-1L-0F (67%) | +$32 |
| MES D2 · 0W-1L-2F (0%) | −$9 |
| Date | Inst | Dir | Orig | B | C tick | C close | D1 | D2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | MES | LONG | +$110 | WITH | +$197 | +$197 | — | — |
| 2026-06-16 | MNQ | LONG | $0 | AGAINST ⛔ | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-16 | MNQ | SHORT | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-16 | MNQ | SHORT | +$199 | WITH | +$433 | +$433 | — | — |
| 2026-06-16 | MES | SHORT | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | MNQ | SHORT | $0 | AGAINST ⛔ | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | MNQ | LONG | $0 | AGAINST ⛔ | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | MES | LONG | −$60 | WITH | −$60 | −$69 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | MES | SHORT | −$55 | WITH | +$210 | +$210 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | MES | LONG | $0 | N/A | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | MNQ | SHORT | −$130 | WITH | −$184 | −$198 | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | MNQ | LONG | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | MNQ | LONG | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | MES | SHORT | −$22 | WITH | −$22 | −$22 | — | — |
| 2026-06-22 | MNQ | SHORT | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-22 | MES | LONG | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-22 | MES | SHORT | +$94 | WITH | +$94 | +$94 | — | — |
| 2026-06-22 | MES | SHORT | +$19 | WITH | +$19 | +$19 | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | MNQ | LONG | +$320 | AGAINST ⛔ | −$300 | −$330 | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | MNQ | SHORT | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | MNQ | SHORT | +$320 | AGAINST ⛔ | +$547 | +$547 | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | MES | LONG | −$51 | AGAINST ⛔ | −$51 | −$51 | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | MES | SHORT | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | MES | SHORT | +$180 | AGAINST ⛔ | +$166 | +$166 | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | MNQ | SHORT | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | MNQ | SHORT | $0 | AGAINST ⛔ | $0 | $0 | +$86 | +$545 |
| 2026-06-24 | MES | SHORT | $0 | AGAINST ⛔ | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | MES | SHORT | $0 | AGAINST ⛔ | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | MNQ | SHORT | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | MNQ | LONG | −$220 | WITH | +$600 | +$600 | −$324 | −$324 |
| 2026-06-25 | MNQ | LONG | $0 | N/A | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | MES | SHORT | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | MES | LONG | −$115 | WITH | −$76 | −$76 | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | MES | LONG | $0 | N/A | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | MNQ | SHORT | −$158 | WITH | −$300 | −$478 | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | MES | SHORT | −$80 | WITH | −$202 | −$208 | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | MES | LONG | −$85 | AGAINST ⛔ | −$125 | −$160 | — | — |
| 2026-06-29 | MNQ | LONG | −$240 | AGAINST ⛔ | −$300 | −$346 | — | — |
| 2026-06-29 | MNQ | SHORT | −$190 | AGAINST ⛔ | −$300 | −$356 | −$359 | −$359 |
| 2026-06-29 | MNQ | SHORT | −$100 | AGAINST ⛔ | −$300 | −$302 | — | — |
| 2026-06-29 | MES | LONG | −$100 | AGAINST ⛔ | −$238 | +$180 | — | — |
| 2026-06-29 | MES | LONG | +$120 | WITH | +$195 | +$195 | — | — |
| 2026-06-29 | MES | LONG | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-30 | MNQ | LONG | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-30 | MNQ | LONG | $0 | AGAINST ⛔ | $0 | $0 | +$71 | +$275 |
| 2026-06-30 | MNQ | LONG | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-30 | MES | LONG | $0 | AGAINST ⛔ | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-06-30 | MES | LONG | $0 | WITH | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-07-01 | MNQ | SHORT | −$140 | WITH | +$328 | +$328 | — | — |
| 2026-07-01 | MNQ | SHORT | −$170 | WITH | +$328 | +$328 | −$251 | −$251 |
| 2026-07-01 | MNQ | SHORT | $0 | N/A | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-07-01 | MES | SHORT | −$50 | WITH | −$152 | −$158 | — | — |
| 2026-07-01 | MES | LONG | $0 | AGAINST ⛔ | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| 2026-07-01 | MES | LONG | $0 | N/A | $0 | $0 | — | — |